Critical parameters sensitivity analysis in thermal modeling of permafrost ground response to climate warming

ABSTRACT: Climate change has had a significant impact on the Arctic region over the past few decades, where it poses a threat to the stability of permafrost bringing increased temperatures and changes in weather. The harmonic active layer has been shown to be impacted by climate change at the ground surface, and warmer air temperatures can result in progressive permafrost thaw, resulting in a deeper active layer. This study aims to assess the effects of critical parameters on the response of permafrost ground to climate warming using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We used TEMP/W to predict the depth of the active layer in the future by analyzing variations in depth, water content, and soil types. The results indicate that, for fine-grained soils, the depth of the model is a more significant parameter than for course-grained soils. The water content of all soil types is a critical factor in determining the time at which permafrost disappears or the depth at which the active layer is located. There is a significant difference in results when using different climate models for samples containing less water at lower depths.