Preliminary results of thermo-hydro-mechanical modelling of large-strain deformation of ground in Canadian cold regions subject to climate change

ABSTRACT: Understanding the dynamic nature of frozen ground and thawing permafrost is vital for engineering adaptation of transportation infrastructure in cold regions to climate change. A large-strain thaw consolidation model is more appropriate than a small-strain model for ice-rich permafrost terrain, fine-grained soils, and frozen ground with excess ice. To forecast the impacts of climate change, it is important that models account for the complex and dynamic heat energy boundary conditions which may be influenced by short-wave and long-wave solar radiation, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed in addition to air temperature. This study builds on recent modelling work on nonlinear thermo-hydro-mechanical coupled large-strain consolidation (Dumais and Konrad 2018, Yu et al. 2020a, 2020b) and presents preliminary results towards developing an open-source tool for forecasting the impacts of climate change on infrastructure in Canadian cold regions.